Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Tyumen vs Dinamo Moskva II

Prediction Audit: Tyumen vs Dinamo Moskva II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tyumen Tyumen
Sep 05, 2026 - 12:00
5 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 30%
Dinamo Moskva II Dinamo Moskva II

AI correctly predicted the Tyumen win.

The match finished 5–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tyumen Tyumen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tyumen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tyumen -25.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tyumen 37.5% 63.3% -25.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.6% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Dinamo Moskva II 32.9% 15.1% +17.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tyumen's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tyumen win 5–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tyumen higher (63.2% vs model 37.5%, 25.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tyumen win 5–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tyumen 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Dinamo Moskva II 32.9%
    • xG · Tyumen 1.35 — Dinamo Moskva II 1.25
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tyumen 1.42 · Draw 4.15 · Dinamo Moskva II 5.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Tyumen 63.3% · Draw 21.6% · Dinamo Moskva II 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Tyumen 1.42 · Draw 4.15 · Dinamo Moskva II 5.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Tyumen 63.3% · Draw 21.6% · Dinamo Moskva II 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tyumen win · 5–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6132905

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tyumen win · Tyumen 5–2 Dinamo Moskva II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Silver
  • Fixture: Tyumen vs Dinamo Moskva II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Tyumen 1.35 — Dinamo Moskva II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit 2 9 7 2 0 23
2 Amkar 9 6 1 2 19
3 Tyumen 10 6 1 3 19
4 Torpedo Miass 9 4 0 5 12
5 Dinamo Stavropol 9 2 2 5 8
6 Irtysh Omsk 10 2 1 7 7
7 Dinamo Moskva II 10 2 1 7 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit 2 9 25 4 +21 23
2 Amkar 9 22 11 +11 19
3 Tyumen 10 22 14 +8 19
4 Torpedo Miass 9 15 13 +2 12
5 Irtysh Omsk 10 9 22 -13 7
6 Dinamo Stavropol 9 8 16 -8 8
7 Dinamo Moskva II 10 7 28 -21 7
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions