Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Zenit 2 vs Tyumen

Prediction Audit: Zenit 2 vs Tyumen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zenit 2 Zenit 2
Aug 23, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 85%
Tyumen Tyumen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Zenit 2 at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zenit 2 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zenit 2 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zenit 2 -14.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zenit 2 37.1% 51.4% -14.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.2% +4.4 pp Aligned
Tyumen 33.3% 23.4% +9.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Zenit 2's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Zenit 2 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Zenit 2; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zenit 2 by 14.3 percentage points (51.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zenit 2 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Tyumen 33.4%
    • xG · Zenit 2 1.34 — Tyumen 1.26
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zenit 2 1.75 · Draw 3.56 · Tyumen 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Zenit 2 51.4% · Draw 25.2% · Tyumen 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zenit 2 1.75 · Draw 3.56 · Tyumen 3.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Zenit 2 51.4% · Draw 25.2% · Tyumen 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4024319

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Zenit 2 1–1 Tyumen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Silver
  • Fixture: Zenit 2 vs Tyumen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Zenit 2 1.34 — Tyumen 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit 2 9 7 2 0 23
2 Amkar 9 6 1 2 19
3 Tyumen 10 6 1 3 19
4 Torpedo Miass 9 4 0 5 12
5 Dinamo Stavropol 9 2 2 5 8
6 Irtysh Omsk 10 2 1 7 7
7 Dinamo Moskva II 10 2 1 7 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit 2 9 25 4 +21 23
2 Amkar 9 22 11 +11 19
3 Tyumen 10 22 14 +8 19
4 Torpedo Miass 9 15 13 +2 12
5 Irtysh Omsk 10 9 22 -13 7
6 Dinamo Stavropol 9 8 16 -8 8
7 Dinamo Moskva II 10 7 28 -21 7
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions