AI correctly predicted the Novosibirsk win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Novosibirsk Novosibirsk ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva II | 34.2% | 53.1% | -18.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Novosibirsk | 36.1% | 21.8% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Rodina Moskva II's win probability at 53.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 18.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Novosibirsk win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Rodina Moskva II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Novosibirsk higher (54.9% vs model 36.1%, 18.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Novosibirsk win 1–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rodina Moskva II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Novosibirsk 36.1%
- xG · Rodina Moskva II 1.28 — Novosibirsk 1.32
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rodina Moskva II 1.68 · Draw 3.54 · Novosibirsk 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · Rodina Moskva II 53.1% · Draw 25.2% · Novosibirsk 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Rodina Moskva II 1.68 · Draw 3.54 · Novosibirsk 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · Rodina Moskva II 53.1% · Draw 25.2% · Novosibirsk 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Novosibirsk win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 23 |
| 5 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 8 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
