Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold / Mashuk-KMV vs Volgar Astrakhan

Prediction Audit: Mashuk-KMV vs Volgar Astrakhan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mashuk-KMV Mashuk-KMV
Sep 21, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Mashuk-KMV at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mashuk-KMV Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mashuk-KMV higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mashuk-KMV -9.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mashuk-KMV 37.1% 46.2% -9.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Volgar Astrakhan 33.3% 25.8% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Mashuk-KMV's win probability at 46.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mashuk-KMV. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mashuk-KMV by 9.1 percentage points (46.2% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mashuk-KMV 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Volgar Astrakhan 33.4%
    • xG · Mashuk-KMV 1.34 — Volgar Astrakhan 1.26
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mashuk-KMV 1.93 · Draw 3.18 · Volgar Astrakhan 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Mashuk-KMV 46.2% · Draw 28.0% · Volgar Astrakhan 25.8%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mashuk-KMV 1.93 · Draw 3.18 · Volgar Astrakhan 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Mashuk-KMV 46.2% · Draw 28.0% · Volgar Astrakhan 25.8%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8838292

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mashuk-KMV 0–0 Volgar Astrakhan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Gold
  • Fixture: Mashuk-KMV vs Volgar Astrakhan
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Mashuk-KMV 1.34 — Volgar Astrakhan 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Gold Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Kirov 11 7 2 2 23
2 Rodina Moskva II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Dinamo Bryansk 11 4 4 3 16
4 Novosibirsk 11 4 3 4 15
5 Dinamo Vladivostok 11 3 4 4 13
6 Mashuk-KMV 11 2 7 2 13
7 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 11 2 6 3 12
8 Volgar Astrakhan 11 1 8 2 11
9 FK Sokol Saratov 11 1 6 4 9
10 Kaluga 11 0 6 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 11 20 10 +10 23
2 Novosibirsk 11 15 14 +1 15
3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 11 14 12 +2 12
4 Dinamo Kirov 11 13 8 +5 23
5 Volgar Astrakhan 11 12 13 -1 11
6 Dinamo Bryansk 11 11 13 -2 16
7 FK Sokol Saratov 11 10 17 -7 9
8 Mashuk-KMV 11 8 8 0 13
9 Dinamo Vladivostok 11 8 9 -1 13
10 Kaluga 11 6 13 -7 6
Second League A - Division A Gold Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold Predictions