The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Dinamo Vladivostok at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Dinamo Vladivostok Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 33.3% | 49.7% | -16.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Dinamo Vladivostok | 37.1% | 24.0% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Alaniya Vladikavkaz's win probability at 49.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Alaniya Vladikavkaz than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Dinamo Vladivostok; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dinamo Vladivostok by 16.4 percentage points (53.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Dinamo Vladivostok 37.0%
- xG · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.26 — Dinamo Vladivostok 1.34
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.81 · Draw 3.42 · Dinamo Vladivostok 3.74
- Implied 1X2 · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 49.7% · Draw 26.3% · Dinamo Vladivostok 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.81 · Draw 3.42 · Dinamo Vladivostok 3.74
- Implied 1X2 · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 49.7% · Draw 26.3% · Dinamo Vladivostok 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 11 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | Novosibirsk | 11 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 11 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Dinamo Kirov | 11 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 23 |
| 5 | Volgar Astrakhan | 11 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Bryansk | 11 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 | FK Sokol Saratov | 11 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 8 | Mashuk-KMV | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 11 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
