The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Plaza Amador at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Plaza Amador Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza Amador | 44.8% | 62.2% | -17.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 21.3% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Veraguas | 26.2% | 16.5% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Plaza Amador's win probability at 62.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Plaza Amador than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Plaza Amador; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Plaza Amador by 17.4 percentage points (62.2% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Plaza Amador 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Veraguas 26.2%
- xG · Plaza Amador 1.50 — Veraguas 1.10
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Plaza Amador 1.50 · Draw 4.14 · Veraguas 5.42
- Implied 1X2 · Plaza Amador 61.0% · Draw 22.1% · Veraguas 16.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Plaza Amador 1.49 · Draw 4.36 · Veraguas 5.62
- Implied 1X2 · Plaza Amador 62.2% · Draw 21.3% · Veraguas 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | UMECIT | 16 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Alianza FC | 16 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 27 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 25 |
| 5 | Tauro FC | 16 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
| 7 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 10 | Union Cocle | 16 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 11 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 8 |
