Predictions / Football / Panama. Liga Panameña de Fútbol / Alianza FC vs San Francisco FC

Prediction Audit: Alianza FC vs San Francisco FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alianza FC Alianza FC
Sep 06, 2026 - 23:15
1 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 85%
San Francisco FC San Francisco FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Alianza FC at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alianza FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Alianza FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Alianza FC +5.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alianza FC 37.1% 31.8% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 33.0% -3.3 pp Aligned
San Francisco FC 33.3% 35.2% -1.9 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Alianza FC's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.8%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Alianza FC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Alianza FC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alianza FC by 5.2 percentage points (31.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alianza FC 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · San Francisco FC 33.4%
    • xG · Alianza FC 1.34 — San Francisco FC 1.26
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 22:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza FC 2.88 · Draw 2.78 · San Francisco FC 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza FC 31.8% · Draw 33.0% · San Francisco FC 35.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 23:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza FC 2.88 · Draw 2.78 · San Francisco FC 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza FC 31.8% · Draw 33.0% · San Francisco FC 35.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6375215

Closing Odds 2.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Alianza FC 1–1 San Francisco FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Panameña de Fútbol
  • Fixture: Alianza FC vs San Francisco FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 23:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Alianza FC 1.34 — San Francisco FC 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +7.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Panameña de Fútbol Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Plaza Amador 16 9 4 3 31
2 Alianza FC 16 6 9 1 27
3 UMECIT 16 6 7 3 25
4 Veraguas 16 7 4 5 25
5 Union Cocle 16 5 8 3 23
6 Tauro FC 16 5 6 5 21
7 CD Arabe Unido 16 6 3 7 21
8 Independiente de La Chorrera 16 4 8 4 20
9 San Francisco FC 16 5 5 6 20
10 Sporting San Miguelito 16 4 6 6 18
11 Deportivo Universitario 16 3 5 8 14
12 Herrera 16 1 5 10 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Plaza Amador 16 28 16 +12 31
2 UMECIT 16 28 20 +8 25
3 Alianza FC 16 26 20 +6 27
4 Veraguas 16 26 23 +3 25
5 Tauro FC 16 22 19 +3 21
6 San Francisco FC 16 22 25 -3 20
7 Sporting San Miguelito 16 19 21 -2 18
8 Deportivo Universitario 16 19 27 -8 14
9 Independiente de La Chorrera 16 18 14 +4 20
10 Union Cocle 16 16 11 +5 23
11 CD Arabe Unido 16 16 20 -4 21
12 Herrera 16 13 37 -24 8
Liga Panameña de Fútbol Panama. Liga Panameña de Fútbol Predictions