Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Parma vs Iraklis 1908

Prediction Audit: Parma vs Iraklis 1908 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Parma Parma
Aug 02, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Iraklis 1908 Iraklis 1908

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Parma at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Parma Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Parma higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Parma -28.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Parma 37.5% 66.3% -28.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.9% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Iraklis 1908 32.9% 13.7% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Parma's win probability at 66.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Parma; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Parma by 28.8 percentage points (66.3% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Parma 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Iraklis 1908 32.9%
    • xG · Parma 1.35 — Iraklis 1908 1.25
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Parma 1.32 · Draw 4.39 · Iraklis 1908 6.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Parma 66.3% · Draw 19.9% · Iraklis 1908 13.7%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Parma 1.32 · Draw 4.39 · Iraklis 1908 6.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Parma 66.3% · Draw 19.9% · Iraklis 1908 13.7%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1951067

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Parma 1–1 Iraklis 1908
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Parma vs Iraklis 1908
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Parma 1.35 — Iraklis 1908 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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