Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / CF Os Belenenses vs Estoril

Prediction Audit: CF Os Belenenses vs Estoril Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses
Jul 31, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 85%
Estoril Estoril

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected CF Os Belenenses at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CF Os Belenenses Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Estoril higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Estoril -26.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CF Os Belenenses 38.5% 19.2% +19.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Estoril 31.9% 58.9% -26.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Estoril's win probability at 58.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 26.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned CF Os Belenenses; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on CF Os Belenenses by 26.9 percentage points (65.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CF Os Belenenses 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Estoril 31.9%
    • xG · CF Os Belenenses 1.37 — Estoril 1.23
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CF Os Belenenses 4.62 · Draw 4.06 · Estoril 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · CF Os Belenenses 19.2% · Draw 21.9% · Estoril 58.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CF Os Belenenses 4.62 · Draw 4.06 · Estoril 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · CF Os Belenenses 19.2% · Draw 21.9% · Estoril 58.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1670131

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · CF Os Belenenses 1–1 Estoril
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: CF Os Belenenses vs Estoril
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): CF Os Belenenses 1.37 — Estoril 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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