Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Girona vs Castellón

Prediction Audit: Girona vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Girona Girona
Jul 29, 2026 - 16:30
3 1.23
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 39%
Castellón Castellón

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Castellón at 36.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Castellón Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Girona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Girona -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Girona 34.6% 40.8% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 27.0% +2.1 pp Aligned
Castellón 36.3% 32.2% +4.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Girona's win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Girona. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Castellón; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Castellón by 6.2 percentage points (42.5% vs model 36.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Girona 34.6% · Draw 29.1% · Castellón 36.3%
    • xG · Girona 1.23 — Castellón 1.37
  2. Jul 29, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Girona 2.18 · Draw 3.29 · Castellón 2.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Girona 40.8% · Draw 27.0% · Castellón 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 29, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Girona 2.18 · Draw 3.29 · Castellón 2.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Girona 40.8% · Draw 27.0% · Castellón 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455308

Closing Odds 2.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Girona 3–3 Castellón
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Girona vs Castellón
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Girona 1.23 — Castellón 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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