Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Palermo vs Iraklis 1908

Prediction Audit: Palermo vs Iraklis 1908 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Palermo Palermo
Jul 29, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 85%
Iraklis 1908 Iraklis 1908

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Palermo at 46.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Palermo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Palermo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Palermo -14.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Palermo 46.1% 60.9% -14.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.1% 22.8% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Iraklis 1908 25.8% 16.3% +9.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Palermo's win probability at 60.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.1%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Palermo than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Palermo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Palermo by 14.8 percentage points (60.9% vs model 46.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Palermo 46.1% · Draw 28.1% · Iraklis 1908 25.8%
    • xG · Palermo 1.38 — Iraklis 1908 1.22
  2. Jul 29, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Palermo 1.42 · Draw 3.80 · Iraklis 1908 5.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Palermo 60.9% · Draw 22.8% · Iraklis 1908 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 29, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Palermo 1.42 · Draw 3.80 · Iraklis 1908 5.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Palermo 60.9% · Draw 22.8% · Iraklis 1908 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 26/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455292

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Palermo 1–1 Iraklis 1908
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Palermo vs Iraklis 1908
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Palermo 1.38 — Iraklis 1908 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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