The model missed the final outcome (Saint Etienne win 4–0).
The model had projected Lausanne at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lausanne Saint Etienne ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Etienne | 32.4% | 45.8% | -13.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Lausanne | 38.0% | 27.8% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Saint Etienne's win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Saint Etienne win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Saint Etienne than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lausanne by 13.4 percentage points (51.4% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Saint Etienne 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Lausanne 38.0%
- xG · Saint Etienne 1.24 — Lausanne 1.36
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Saint Etienne 1.94 · Draw 3.36 · Lausanne 3.19
- Implied 1X2 · Saint Etienne 45.8% · Draw 26.4% · Lausanne 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Saint Etienne 1.94 · Draw 3.36 · Lausanne 3.19
- Implied 1X2 · Saint Etienne 45.8% · Draw 26.4% · Lausanne 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Saint Etienne win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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