Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Olot vs Girona

Prediction Audit: Olot vs Girona Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olot Olot
Jul 22, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Girona Girona

AI correctly predicted the Girona win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Girona Girona ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Girona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Girona -27.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Olot 21.3% 6.5% +14.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.1% 13.8% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Girona 52.6% 79.7% -27.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Girona's win probability at 79.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.6%, a difference of 27.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Girona win 1–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Girona higher (79.7% vs model 52.6%, 27.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Girona win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 19:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Olot 21.3% · Draw 26.1% · Girona 52.6%
    • xG · Olot 1.25 — Girona 1.35
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Olot 13.85 · Draw 6.55 · Girona 1.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Olot 6.5% · Draw 13.8% · Girona 79.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Olot 13.85 · Draw 6.55 · Girona 1.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Olot 6.5% · Draw 13.8% · Girona 79.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Girona win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 10:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2504944

Closing Odds 1.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Girona win · Olot 1–3 Girona
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Olot vs Girona
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Olot 1.25 — Girona 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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