Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Dunkerque vs Standard Liege

Prediction Audit: Dunkerque vs Standard Liege Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dunkerque Dunkerque
Jul 18, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Standard Liege Standard Liege

The model missed the final outcome (Dunkerque win 2–0).

The model had projected Standard Liege at 38.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Standard Liege Dunkerque ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Standard Liege -3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dunkerque 32.1% 29.3% +2.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.1% 28.3% +0.7 pp Aligned
Standard Liege 38.9% 42.3% -3.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dunkerque win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Standard Liege; match finished Dunkerque

Market lesson

The full-time result was Dunkerque win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dunkerque 32.0% · Draw 29.1% · Standard Liege 38.9%
    • xG · Dunkerque 1.26 — Standard Liege 1.34
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dunkerque 3.03 · Draw 3.14 · Standard Liege 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Dunkerque 29.3% · Draw 28.3% · Standard Liege 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dunkerque 3.03 · Draw 3.14 · Standard Liege 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Dunkerque 29.3% · Draw 28.3% · Standard Liege 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dunkerque win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 22:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1515717

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dunkerque win · Dunkerque 2–0 Standard Liege
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: USL Dunkerque vs Standard Liège
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): USL Dunkerque 1.26 — Standard Liège 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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