Predictions / Football / Belgium. Second Amateur Division - ACFF / Aywaille vs Stade Mouscronnois

Prediction Audit: Aywaille vs Stade Mouscronnois Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aywaille Aywaille
Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.27
4 1.33
xG Accuracy: 34%
Stade Mouscronnois Stade Mouscronnois

AI correctly predicted the Stade Mouscronnois win.

The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stade Mouscronnois Stade Mouscronnois ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Stade Mouscronnois win 0–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Aywaille 1.27 — Stade Mouscronnois 1.33
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Stade Mouscronnois win · 0–4
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10090208

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stade Mouscronnois win · Aywaille 0–4 Stade Mouscronnois
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second Amateur Division - ACFF
  • Fixture: Aywaille vs Stade Mouscronnois
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Aywaille 1.27 — Stade Mouscronnois 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second Amateur Division - ACFF Second Amateur Division - ACFF — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Crossing Schaerbeek 5 4 0 1 12
2 Braine 5 4 0 1 12
3 AS Eupen II 5 3 2 0 11
4 Stade Verviers 6 3 2 1 11
5 Jette 5 3 2 0 11
6 Ganshoren 5 3 1 1 10
7 SG-Tertre-Hautrage 6 3 1 2 10
8 Richelle United 6 3 0 3 9
9 Ostiches 6 2 3 1 9
10 RUS Binche 6 2 2 2 8
11 La Calamine 6 2 1 3 7
12 Huy 5 2 1 2 7
13 Stade Mouscronnois 5 1 2 2 5
14 Stockay-Warfusée 5 1 2 2 5
15 Acren-Lessines 6 1 1 4 4
16 Entité Manageoise 6 0 2 4 2
17 Aywaille 5 0 1 4 1
18 Union Namur 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AS Eupen II 5 15 8 +7 11
2 Crossing Schaerbeek 5 14 7 +7 12
3 Ganshoren 5 14 9 +5 10
4 Stade Verviers 6 13 6 +7 11
5 Richelle United 6 13 11 +2 9
6 Jette 5 12 6 +6 11
7 RUS Binche 6 12 15 -3 8
8 La Calamine 6 11 10 +1 7
9 Stade Mouscronnois 5 10 12 -2 5
10 Ostiches 6 9 9 0 9
11 Acren-Lessines 6 9 12 -3 4
12 Braine 5 8 3 +5 12
13 Entité Manageoise 6 8 16 -8 2
14 SG-Tertre-Hautrage 6 7 8 -1 10
15 Huy 5 5 7 -2 7
16 Stockay-Warfusée 5 4 6 -2 5
17 Aywaille 5 3 11 -8 1
18 Union Namur 5 2 13 -11 1
Second Amateur Division - ACFF Belgium. Second Amateur Division - ACFF Predictions