Predictions / Football / Belgium. Second Amateur Division - ACFF / Stockay-Warfusée vs Huy

Prediction Audit: Stockay-Warfusée vs Huy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stockay-Warfusée Stockay-Warfusée
Aug 26, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Huy Huy

The model missed the final outcome (Stockay-Warfusée win 2–0).

The model had projected Huy at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Huy Stockay-Warfusée ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Huy; match finished Stockay-Warfusée

Market lesson

The full-time result was Stockay-Warfusée win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Stockay-Warfusée 1.29 — Huy 1.31
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Stockay-Warfusée win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4363312

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stockay-Warfusée win · Stockay-Warfusée 2–0 Huy
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second Amateur Division - ACFF
  • Fixture: Stockay-Warfusée vs Huy
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Stockay-Warfusée 1.29 — Huy 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Second Amateur Division - ACFF Second Amateur Division - ACFF — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Crossing Schaerbeek 7 5 1 1 16
2 SG-Tertre-Hautrage 8 5 1 2 16
3 Jette 7 4 3 0 15
4 Braine 8 4 2 2 14
5 Ganshoren 7 4 1 2 13
6 AS Eupen II 8 3 3 2 12
7 RUS Binche 8 3 3 2 12
8 Stade Verviers 8 3 2 3 11
9 Stade Mouscronnois 7 3 2 2 11
10 Richelle United 8 3 2 3 11
11 Huy 8 3 2 3 11
12 La Calamine 7 3 1 3 10
13 Ostiches 8 2 4 2 10
14 Stockay-Warfusée 7 2 2 3 8
15 Acren-Lessines 7 2 1 4 7
16 Union Namur 7 1 1 5 4
17 Entité Manageoise 7 0 2 5 2
18 Aywaille 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Crossing Schaerbeek 7 20 12 +8 16
2 Ganshoren 7 20 12 +8 13
3 Stade Verviers 8 18 14 +4 11
4 Stade Mouscronnois 7 17 14 +3 11
5 AS Eupen II 8 17 16 +1 12
6 SG-Tertre-Hautrage 8 15 11 +4 16
7 RUS Binche 8 15 17 -2 12
8 Jette 7 14 6 +8 15
9 Richelle United 8 14 12 +2 11
10 Acren-Lessines 7 13 13 0 7
11 La Calamine 7 12 10 +2 10
12 Huy 8 11 14 -3 11
13 Ostiches 8 10 11 -1 10
14 Entité Manageoise 7 10 19 -9 2
15 Braine 8 9 5 +4 14
16 Stockay-Warfusée 7 6 9 -3 8
17 Union Namur 7 5 18 -13 4
18 Aywaille 7 3 16 -13 1
Second Amateur Division - ACFF Belgium. Second Amateur Division - ACFF Predictions