The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sloga Doboj | 31.0% | 42.2% | -11.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.3% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 39.5% | 26.5% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.5%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Zeljeznicar Sarajevo; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Zeljeznicar Sarajevo by 13.0 percentage points (26.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sloga Doboj 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 39.5%
- xG · Sloga Doboj 1.21 — Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.39
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sloga Doboj 2.17 · Draw 2.93 · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Sloga Doboj 42.2% · Draw 31.3% · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sloga Doboj 2.17 · Draw 2.93 · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Sloga Doboj 42.2% · Draw 31.3% · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premijer Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Čelik | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
