AI correctly predicted the Zrinjski win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Zrinjski Zrinjski ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zrinjski | 43.8% | 66.5% | -22.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 21.4% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Čelik | 27.1% | 12.0% | +15.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Zrinjski's win probability at 66.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Zrinjski win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Zrinjski attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zrinjski higher (66.5% vs model 43.8%, 22.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zrinjski win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zrinjski 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Čelik 27.1%
- xG · Zrinjski 1.48 — Čelik 1.12
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zrinjski 1.37 · Draw 4.25 · Čelik 7.60
- Implied 1X2 · Zrinjski 66.5% · Draw 21.4% · Čelik 12.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zrinjski 1.37 · Draw 4.25 · Čelik 7.60
- Implied 1X2 · Zrinjski 66.5% · Draw 21.4% · Čelik 12.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zrinjski win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premijer Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Čelik | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
