Prediction Audit: Vysoké Mýto vs Letohrad Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vysoké Mýto

Aug 02, 2026 - 15:00

8 1.44

1 1.16

xG Accuracy: 16%

Letohrad

AI correctly predicted the Vysoké Mýto win.

The match finished 8–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Vysoké Mýto Vysoké Mýto ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 8-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vysoké Mýto	41.9%	69.1%	-27.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	18.0%	+11.3 pp	Model Edge
Letohrad	28.8%	12.9%	+15.9 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Vysoké Mýto's win probability at 69.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vysoké Mýto win 8–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vysoké Mýto higher (69.1% vs model 41.9%, 27.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vysoké Mýto win 8–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vysoké Mýto 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Letohrad 28.8%
- xG · Vysoké Mýto 1.44 — Letohrad 1.16
Aug 02, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vysoké Mýto 1.28 · Draw 4.92 · Letohrad 6.84
- Implied 1X2 · Vysoké Mýto 69.1% · Draw 18.0% · Letohrad 12.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vysoké Mýto 1.28 · Draw 4.92 · Letohrad 6.84
- Implied 1X2 · Vysoké Mýto 69.1% · Draw 18.0% · Letohrad 12.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Vysoké Mýto win · 8–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (27 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1951055

Closing Odds 1.28

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vysoké Mýto win · Vysoké Mýto 8–1 Letohrad

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Cup
Fixture: Vysoké Mýto vs Letohrad
Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Vysoké Mýto 1.44 — Letohrad 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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