Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Cup / Kravare vs Bospor Bohumín

Prediction Audit: Kravare vs Bospor Bohumín Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kravare Kravare
Jul 24, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.34
6 1.26
xG Accuracy: 25%
Bospor Bohumín Bospor Bohumín

The model missed the final outcome (Bospor Bohumín win 1–6).

The model had projected Kravare at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kravare Bospor Bohumín ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bospor Bohumín higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bospor Bohumín -7.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kravare 37.1% 34.5% +2.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Aligned
Bospor Bohumín 33.3% 40.9% -7.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bospor Bohumín's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bospor Bohumín win 1–6.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bospor Bohumín. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kravare; match finished Bospor Bohumín

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kravare by 7.6 percentage points (44.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kravare 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Bospor Bohumín 33.4%
    • xG · Kravare 1.34 — Bospor Bohumín 1.26
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kravare 2.61 · Draw 3.65 · Bospor Bohumín 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Kravare 34.5% · Draw 24.6% · Bospor Bohumín 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kravare 2.61 · Draw 3.65 · Bospor Bohumín 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Kravare 34.5% · Draw 24.6% · Bospor Bohumín 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bospor Bohumín win · 1–6
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452977

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bospor Bohumín win · Kravare 1–6 Bospor Bohumín
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Czech Cup
  • Fixture: Kravare vs Bospor Bohumín
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Kravare 1.34 — Bospor Bohumín 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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