Predictions / Football / Brazil. Baiano U20 / Bahia U20 vs Camaçariense U20

Prediction Audit: Bahia U20 vs Camaçariense U20 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bahia U20 Bahia U20
Jul 18, 2026 - 18:00
7 1.56
0 1.04
xG Accuracy: 17%
Camaçariense U20 Camaçariense U20

AI correctly predicted the Bahia U20 win.

The match finished 7–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bahia U20 Bahia U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 7-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bahia U20 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bahia U20 -23.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bahia U20 60.8% 84.1% -23.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 22.2% 9.3% +12.9 pp Model Edge
Camaçariense U20 17.0% 6.6% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bahia U20's win probability at 84.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 60.8%, a difference of 23.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bahia U20 win 7–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Bahia U20 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.56 vs 1.04)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bahia U20 higher (84.1% vs model 60.8%, 23.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bahia U20 win 7–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bahia U20 60.9% · Draw 22.1% · Camaçariense U20 17.0%
    • xG · Bahia U20 1.56 — Camaçariense U20 1.04
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bahia U20 1.06 · Draw 9.60 · Camaçariense U20 13.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Bahia U20 84.1% · Draw 9.3% · Camaçariense U20 6.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bahia U20 1.06 · Draw 9.60 · Camaçariense U20 13.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Bahia U20 84.1% · Draw 9.3% · Camaçariense U20 6.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bahia U20 win · 7–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3092261

Closing Odds 1.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bahia U20 win · Bahia U20 7–0 Camaçariense U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Baiano U20
  • Fixture: Bahia U20 vs Camaçariense U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Bahia U20 1.56 — Camaçariense U20 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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