Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg / Essingen vs CFR Pforzheim

Prediction Audit: Essingen vs CFR Pforzheim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Essingen Essingen
Sep 05, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.30
4 1.30
xG Accuracy: 33%
CFR Pforzheim CFR Pforzheim

The model missed the final outcome (CFR Pforzheim win 0–4).

The model had projected Essingen at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Essingen CFR Pforzheim ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was CFR Pforzheim win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Essingen 1.30 — CFR Pforzheim 1.30
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result CFR Pforzheim win · 0–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6135875

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CFR Pforzheim win · Essingen 0–4 CFR Pforzheim
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg
  • Fixture: Essingen vs CFR Pforzheim
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Essingen 1.3 — CFR Pforzheim 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Oberachern 11 7 2 2 23
2 Backnang 10 6 3 1 21
3 FC 08 Villingen 10 6 2 2 20
4 Reutlingen 11 6 2 3 20
5 Young Boys Reutlingen 10 5 4 1 19
6 CFR Pforzheim 11 5 2 4 17
7 FC Holzhausen 11 5 2 4 17
8 Bahlinger SC 11 4 5 2 17
9 FV Ravensburg 11 4 4 3 16
10 1. FC Muhlhausen 10 5 1 4 16
11 Karlsruhe II 10 3 4 3 13
12 Balingen 11 3 3 5 12
13 Essingen 11 3 3 5 12
14 Teningen 11 4 0 7 12
15 TSV Singen 10 3 1 6 10
16 FC Nöttingen 11 3 0 8 9
17 Türkspor Neckarsulm 10 3 0 7 9
18 Normannia Gmünd 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Backnang 10 25 12 +13 21
2 FC Nöttingen 11 24 20 +4 9
3 Young Boys Reutlingen 10 23 13 +10 19
4 Oberachern 11 22 9 +13 23
5 1. FC Muhlhausen 10 22 23 -1 16
6 FC 08 Villingen 10 21 11 +10 20
7 CFR Pforzheim 11 21 19 +2 17
8 FV Ravensburg 11 19 14 +5 16
9 Reutlingen 11 18 15 +3 20
10 FC Holzhausen 11 18 17 +1 17
11 Teningen 11 18 27 -9 12
12 Balingen 11 17 18 -1 12
13 Bahlinger SC 11 16 16 0 17
14 Karlsruhe II 10 16 18 -2 13
15 Essingen 11 13 18 -5 12
16 TSV Singen 10 13 19 -6 10
17 Türkspor Neckarsulm 10 10 26 -16 9
18 Normannia Gmünd 10 8 29 -21 3
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Germany. Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg Predictions