AI correctly predicted the Napoli W win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Napoli W Napoli W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli W | 35.2% | 40.2% | -5.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.1% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Parma W | 35.2% | 32.8% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Napoli W's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Napoli W win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Napoli W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Napoli W higher (40.2% vs model 35.2%, 5.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Napoli W win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Napoli W 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Parma W 35.2%
- xG · Napoli W 1.30 — Parma W 1.30
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Napoli W 2.25 · Draw 3.34 · Parma W 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Napoli W 40.2% · Draw 27.1% · Parma W 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Napoli W 2.25 · Draw 3.34 · Parma W 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Napoli W 40.2% · Draw 27.1% · Parma W 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Napoli W win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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