Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Schweizer Cup / Meyrin vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

Prediction Audit: Meyrin vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Meyrin Meyrin
Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00
0(3) 1.28
0(4) 1.32
xG Accuracy: 49%
Neuchatel Xamax FC Neuchatel Xamax FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Neuchatel Xamax FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Neuchatel Xamax FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Neuchatel Xamax FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Neuchatel Xamax FC -26.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Meyrin 34.2% 21.0% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 16.5% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Neuchatel Xamax FC 36.1% 62.5% -26.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Neuchatel Xamax FC's win probability at 62.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 26.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Neuchatel Xamax FC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Neuchatel Xamax FC by 26.4 percentage points (62.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Meyrin 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Neuchatel Xamax FC 36.1%
    • xG · Meyrin 1.28 — Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.32
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:46 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Meyrin 4.20 · Draw 5.35 · Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Meyrin 21.0% · Draw 16.5% · Neuchatel Xamax FC 62.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Meyrin 4.20 · Draw 5.35 · Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.41
    • Implied 1X2 · Meyrin 21.0% · Draw 16.5% · Neuchatel Xamax FC 62.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3353469

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Meyrin 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Schweizer Cup
  • Fixture: Meyrin vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Meyrin 1.28 — Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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