The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected SK Poltava at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 SK Poltava Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Poltava | 40.4% | 47.3% | -6.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.4% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
| UCSA | 30.1% | 28.3% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates SK Poltava's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on SK Poltava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned SK Poltava; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on SK Poltava by 6.9 percentage points (47.3% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SK Poltava 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · UCSA 30.1%
- xG · SK Poltava 1.41 — UCSA 1.19
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SK Poltava 1.70 · Draw 3.86 · UCSA 3.59
- Implied 1X2 · SK Poltava 52.2% · Draw 23.0% · UCSA 24.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · SK Poltava 1.90 · Draw 3.68 · UCSA 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · SK Poltava 47.3% · Draw 24.4% · UCSA 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Persha Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol' | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | UCSA | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 9 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | Yarud Mariupol' | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | UCSA | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Polissya II | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 2 |
