Prediction Audit: Prykarpattia vs Probiy Horodenka Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Prykarpattia

Aug 14, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 45%

Probiy Horodenka

AI correctly predicted the Prykarpattia win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Prykarpattia Prykarpattia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Prykarpattia	38.0%	48.6%	-10.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.7%	+1.9 pp	Aligned
Probiy Horodenka	32.4%	23.7%	+8.7 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Prykarpattia's win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Prykarpattia win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Prykarpattia than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Prykarpattia higher (48.5% vs model 38.0%, 10.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Prykarpattia win 3–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Prykarpattia 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Probiy Horodenka 32.4%
- xG · Prykarpattia 1.36 — Probiy Horodenka 1.24
Aug 14, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Prykarpattia 1.85 · Draw 3.24 · Probiy Horodenka 3.79
- Implied 1X2 · Prykarpattia 48.6% · Draw 27.7% · Probiy Horodenka 23.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Prykarpattia 1.85 · Draw 3.24 · Probiy Horodenka 3.79
- Implied 1X2 · Prykarpattia 48.6% · Draw 27.7% · Probiy Horodenka 23.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Prykarpattia win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3226305

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Prykarpattia win · Prykarpattia 3–0 Probiy Horodenka

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Persha Liga
Fixture: Prykarpattia vs Probiy Horodenka
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Prykarpattia 1.36 — Probiy Horodenka 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kulykiv	9	5	2	2	17
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	9	5	2	2	17
3	Oleksandria	9	4	4	1	16
4	SK Poltava	9	4	3	2	15
5	Prykarpattia	9	4	2	3	14
6	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	9	4	2	3	14
7	Yarud Mariupol'	9	4	2	3	14
8	Inhulets	8	4	2	2	14
9	Metal Kharkiv	9	4	1	4	13
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	9	3	3	3	12
11	Nyva Ternopil	9	2	4	3	10
12	UCSA	9	2	4	3	10
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	8	3	0	5	9
14	Chernihiv	8	1	4	3	7
15	Polissya II	8	1	3	4	6
16	Probiy Horodenka	9	0	2	7	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kulykiv	9	19	9	+10	17
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	9	14	12	+2	14
3	SK Poltava	9	13	5	+8	15
4	Oleksandria	9	13	7	+6	16
5	Prykarpattia	9	12	9	+3	14
6	Yarud Mariupol'	9	12	11	+1	14
7	UCSA	9	12	14	-2	10
8	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	9	11	6	+5	17
9	Metal Kharkiv	9	11	11	0	13
10	Polissya II	8	11	14	-3	6
11	Inhulets	8	10	10	0	14
12	Lokomotiv Kyiv	9	9	9	0	12
13	Nyva Ternopil	9	9	9	0	10
14	Chernihiv	8	8	11	-3	7
15	Kolos Kovalivka II	8	8	15	-7	9
16	Probiy Horodenka	9	6	26	-20	2