The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).
The model had projected Oleksandria at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Oleksandria Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCSA | 34.2% | 26.6% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Oleksandria | 36.1% | 47.5% | -11.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Oleksandria's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 4–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Oleksandria than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Oleksandria; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Oleksandria by 11.4 percentage points (47.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · UCSA 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Oleksandria 36.1%
- xG · UCSA 1.28 — Oleksandria 1.32
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · UCSA 3.34 · Draw 3.44 · Oleksandria 1.87
- Implied 1X2 · UCSA 26.6% · Draw 25.8% · Oleksandria 47.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · UCSA 3.34 · Draw 3.44 · Oleksandria 1.87
- Implied 1X2 · UCSA 26.6% · Draw 25.8% · Oleksandria 47.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for UCSA & Oleksandria!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Persha Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Oleksandria | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SK Poltava | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol' | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | UCSA | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kulykiv | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 9 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Prykarpattia | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | Yarud Mariupol' | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | UCSA | 9 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 9 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Polissya II | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Nyva Ternopil | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 9 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 2 |
