AI correctly predicted the Club Nacional win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Club Nacional Club Nacional ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 45.8% | 66.0% | -20.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 20.9% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Progreso | 25.4% | 13.1% | +12.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Club Nacional's win probability at 66.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 20.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Club Nacional win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Club Nacional attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Club Nacional higher (66.0% vs model 45.8%, 20.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Club Nacional win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Nacional 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Progreso 25.4%
- xG · Club Nacional 1.52 — Progreso 1.08
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Nacional 1.44 · Draw 4.55 · Progreso 7.27
- Implied 1X2 · Club Nacional 66.0% · Draw 20.9% · Progreso 13.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Nacional 1.44 · Draw 4.55 · Progreso 7.27
- Implied 1X2 · Club Nacional 66.0% · Draw 20.9% · Progreso 13.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Club Nacional win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División - Apertura — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 55 |
| 2 | Racing Montevideo | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 52 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 43 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 42 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 10 | Cerro Largo | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 33 |
| 11 | Juventud | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 32 |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 30 |
| 15 | Danubio | 28 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 25 |
| 16 | Progreso | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 25 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 27 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 50 |
| 2 | Penarol | 28 | 46 | 23 | +23 | 55 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 28 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 49 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 28 | 40 | 36 | +4 | 43 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 42 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 28 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 34 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 28 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 52 |
| 8 | Wanderers | 28 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 43 |
| 9 | Juventud | 28 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 32 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 28 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 38 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 28 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 33 |
| 12 | Boston River | 29 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 28 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Danubio | 28 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 25 |
| 15 | Progreso | 29 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 25 |
| 16 | Cerro | 29 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 32 |
