Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Prediction Audit: Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Prisons
Jul 08, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.13
0 0.97
xG Accuracy: 56%
Mbeya City Mbeya City

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Tanzania Prisons at 41.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tanzania Prisons Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Tanzania Prisons higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tanzania Prisons -5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tanzania Prisons 41.1% 46.6% -5.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 31.6% 28.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Mbeya City 27.3% 24.7% +2.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Tanzania Prisons's win probability at 46.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.1%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Tanzania Prisons. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.10, 0 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Tanzania Prisons; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tanzania Prisons by 5.5 percentage points (46.6% vs model 41.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 08, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tanzania Prisons 41.0% · Draw 31.7% · Mbeya City 27.3%
    • xG · Tanzania Prisons 1.13 — Mbeya City 0.97
  2. Jul 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tanzania Prisons 1.91 · Draw 3.10 · Mbeya City 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Tanzania Prisons 46.6% · Draw 28.7% · Mbeya City 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jul 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tanzania Prisons 1.91 · Draw 3.10 · Mbeya City 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Tanzania Prisons 46.6% · Draw 28.7% · Mbeya City 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jul 08, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 05:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3379362

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tanzania Prisons 0–0 Mbeya City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-08 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Tanzania Prisons 1.13 — Mbeya City 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.1)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
Ligi kuu Bara Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara Predictions