The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Young Boys W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Young Boys W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zürich W | 34.2% | 48.8% | -14.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Young Boys W | 36.1% | 26.1% | +10.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Zürich W's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Zürich W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Young Boys W; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Young Boys W by 14.6 percentage points (50.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zürich W 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Young Boys W 36.1%
- xG · Zürich W 1.28 — Young Boys W 1.32
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zürich W 1.82 · Draw 3.54 · Young Boys W 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Zürich W 48.8% · Draw 25.1% · Young Boys W 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zürich W 1.82 · Draw 3.54 · Young Boys W 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Zürich W 48.8% · Draw 25.1% · Young Boys W 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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AXA Women’s Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Grasshopper W | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Young Boys W | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Basel W | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yverdon | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 8 | Rapperswil Jona | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zürich W | 7 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 15 |
| 2 | Grasshopper W | 7 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 14 |
| 3 | Servette Chênois W | 7 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | Young Boys W | 7 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Luzern W | 7 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Yverdon | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Basel W | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil Jona | 7 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 5 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau | 7 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 1 |
