AI correctly predicted the Ararat-Armenia win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat | 24.5% | 10.3% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.6% | 17.0% | +11.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Ararat-Armenia | 46.8% | 72.7% | -25.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ararat-Armenia's win probability at 72.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ararat-Armenia win 0–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Ararat-Armenia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.54 vs 1.06)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ararat-Armenia higher (72.7% vs model 46.8%, 25.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ararat-Armenia win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ararat 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Ararat-Armenia 46.8%
- xG · Ararat 1.06 — Ararat-Armenia 1.54
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ararat 8.88 · Draw 5.39 · Ararat-Armenia 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Ararat 10.3% · Draw 17.0% · Ararat-Armenia 72.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Ararat 8.88 · Draw 5.39 · Ararat-Armenia 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Ararat 10.3% · Draw 17.0% · Ararat-Armenia 72.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ararat-Armenia win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Pyunik Yerevan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Sardarapat | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Urartu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Shirak | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | BKMA | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Gandzasar | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Syunik | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 8 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Alashkert | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 | Pyunik Yerevan | 8 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Ararat-Armenia | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | Sardarapat | 8 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Urartu | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Shirak | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | BKMA | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Gandzasar | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 3 |
| 10 | Ararat | 8 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Van | 8 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 4 |
| 12 | Syunik | 8 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 2 |
