Predictions / Football / Armenia. Premier League / BKMA vs Shirak

Prediction Audit: BKMA vs Shirak Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

BKMA BKMA
Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 49%
Shirak Shirak

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected BKMA at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 BKMA Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned BKMA; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · BKMA 1.41 — Shirak 1.19
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1812980

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · BKMA 0–0 Shirak
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: BKMA vs Shirak
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): BKMA 1.41 — Shirak 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Noah 8 8 0 0 24
2 Ararat-Armenia 8 6 1 1 19
3 Pyunik Yerevan 8 5 3 0 18
4 Alashkert 8 4 3 1 15
5 Sardarapat 8 3 3 2 12
6 FC Urartu 8 3 2 3 11
7 Shirak 8 3 1 4 10
8 Ararat 8 3 0 5 9
9 BKMA 8 2 2 4 8
10 Van 8 1 1 6 4
11 Gandzasar 8 1 0 7 3
12 Syunik 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Noah 8 21 5 +16 24
2 Alashkert 8 18 6 +12 15
3 Pyunik Yerevan 8 18 8 +10 18
4 Ararat-Armenia 8 17 8 +9 19
5 Sardarapat 8 14 12 +2 12
6 FC Urartu 8 12 10 +2 11
7 Shirak 8 11 10 +1 10
8 BKMA 8 8 10 -2 8
9 Gandzasar 8 8 20 -12 3
10 Ararat 8 6 13 -7 9
11 Van 8 4 21 -17 4
12 Syunik 8 3 17 -14 2
Premier League Armenia. Premier League Predictions