Predictions / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Tepatitlán vs Durango

Prediction Audit: Tepatitlán vs Durango Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tepatitlán Tepatitlán
Jul 25, 2026 - 01:00
0 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Durango Durango

The model missed the final outcome (Durango win 0–1).

The model had projected Tepatitlán at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tepatitlán Durango ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tepatitlán; match finished Durango

Market lesson

The full-time result was Durango win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Tepatitlán 1.41 — Durango 1.19
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Durango win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449560

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Durango win · Tepatitlán 0–1 Durango
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Tepatitlán vs Durango
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Tepatitlán 1.41 — Durango 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CA La Paz 12 7 2 3 23
2 Leones Negros UDG 11 7 2 2 23
3 Monarcas 12 7 2 3 23
4 Venados FC 11 6 1 4 19
5 Piratas 12 5 3 4 18
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 11 5 2 4 17
7 Cancún 11 5 2 4 17
8 Durango 11 5 2 4 17
9 Correcaminos Uat 12 4 4 4 16
10 Tlaxcala 12 4 3 5 15
11 Tapatío 11 4 2 5 14
12 Dorados 11 3 4 4 13
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 4 1 7 13
14 CDS Tampico Madero 11 3 2 6 11
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 11 1 5 5 8
16 Tepatitlán 11 2 1 8 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 12 28 15 +13 23
2 Leones Negros UDG 11 27 16 +11 23
3 Venados FC 11 26 21 +5 19
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 11 23 19 +4 17
5 Tlaxcala 12 23 25 -2 15
6 Monarcas 12 22 13 +9 23
7 Correcaminos Uat 12 20 20 0 16
8 Dorados 11 20 20 0 13
9 Cancún 11 19 15 +4 17
10 Tapatío 11 19 19 0 14
11 Piratas 12 18 14 +4 18
12 CDS Tampico Madero 11 12 19 -7 11
13 Durango 11 11 11 0 17
14 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 11 11 18 -7 8
15 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 10 23 -13 13
16 Tepatitlán 11 9 30 -21 7
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions