Predictions / Football / South-Korea. FA Cup / Cheonan City vs Mokpo City

Prediction Audit: Cheonan City vs Mokpo City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cheonan City Cheonan City
Jul 15, 2026 - 10:30
2 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 78%
Mokpo City Mokpo City

AI correctly predicted the Cheonan City win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cheonan City Cheonan City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cheonan City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cheonan City -20.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cheonan City 48.0% 68.3% -20.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.7% 19.4% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Mokpo City 24.3% 12.3% +12.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cheonan City's win probability at 68.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.0%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cheonan City win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cheonan City higher (68.3% vs model 48.0%, 20.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cheonan City win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 15, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cheonan City 48.0% · Draw 27.7% · Mokpo City 24.3%
    • xG · Cheonan City 1.36 — Mokpo City 1.24
  2. Jul 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cheonan City 1.25 · Draw 4.39 · Mokpo City 6.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Cheonan City 68.3% · Draw 19.4% · Mokpo City 12.3%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. Jul 15, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cheonan City 1.25 · Draw 4.39 · Mokpo City 6.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Cheonan City 68.3% · Draw 19.4% · Mokpo City 12.3%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. Jul 15, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cheonan City win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1759989

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cheonan City win · Cheonan City 2–1 Mokpo City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Cheonan City vs Mokpo City
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Cheonan City 1.36 — Mokpo City 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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