The model missed the final outcome (America SP win 2–4).
The model had projected José Bonifácio at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 José Bonifácio America SP ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Bonifácio | 38.0% | 39.9% | -1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.9% | 30.9% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| America SP | 32.1% | 29.2% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was America SP win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned José Bonifácio; match finished America SP
Market lesson
The full-time result was America SP win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · José Bonifácio 38.0% · Draw 29.8% · America SP 32.1%
- xG · José Bonifácio 1.32 — America SP 1.28
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · José Bonifácio 2.23 · Draw 2.88 · America SP 3.05
- Implied 1X2 · José Bonifácio 39.9% · Draw 30.9% · America SP 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · José Bonifácio 2.23 · Draw 2.88 · America SP 3.05
- Implied 1X2 · José Bonifácio 39.9% · Draw 30.9% · America SP 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result America SP win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Paulista Série B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | America SP | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Assisense | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Tupa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Riopretano | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Assisense | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Tupa | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 4 | America SP | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 6 | Riopretano | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
