AI correctly predicted the Independente SP win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Independente SP Independente SP ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independente SP | 47.8% | 65.1% | -17.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.2% | 22.0% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Sporting Paulinense | 23.9% | 12.8% | +11.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Independente SP's win probability at 65.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.8%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Independente SP win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Independente SP than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Independente SP higher (65.1% vs model 47.8%, 17.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Independente SP win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Independente SP 47.8% · Draw 28.2% · Sporting Paulinense 24.0%
- xG · Independente SP 1.39 — Sporting Paulinense 1.21
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Independente SP 1.36 · Draw 4.02 · Sporting Paulinense 6.90
- Implied 1X2 · Independente SP 65.1% · Draw 22.0% · Sporting Paulinense 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Independente SP 1.36 · Draw 4.02 · Sporting Paulinense 6.90
- Implied 1X2 · Independente SP 65.1% · Draw 22.0% · Sporting Paulinense 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Independente SP win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Paulista Série B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | America SP | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Assisense | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Tupa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Riopretano | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Assisense | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Tupa | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 4 | America SP | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 6 | Riopretano | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
