Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Hessen / Kassel 2 vs Hummetroth

Prediction Audit: Kassel 2 vs Hummetroth Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Kassel 2
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Hummetroth Hummetroth

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Kassel 2 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kassel 2 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Kassel 2; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 07:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kassel 2 1.30 — Hummetroth 1.30
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6359639

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kassel 2 1–1 Hummetroth
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Hessen
  • Fixture: Kassel 2 vs Hummetroth
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Kassel 2 1.3 — Hummetroth 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Hessen Oberliga - Hessen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eintracht Stadtallendorf 12 8 2 2 26
2 Unter-Flockenbach 12 8 1 3 25
3 Eddersheim 11 6 4 1 22
4 Friedberg 12 6 3 3 21
5 Vfb Marburg 12 6 2 4 20
6 Hadamar 11 6 2 3 20
7 Hünfelder SV 12 6 1 5 19
8 Darmstadt 98 II 12 5 3 4 18
9 TuBa Pohlheim 11 5 2 4 17
10 Fernwald 12 3 7 2 16
11 Rot-Weiß Walldorf 12 4 2 6 14
12 Kassel 12 4 2 6 14
13 Bayern Alzenau 12 3 4 5 13
14 Baunatal 11 3 3 5 12
15 Hummetroth 11 2 3 6 9
16 Kassel 2 11 2 2 7 8
17 1960 Hanau 11 1 4 6 7
18 FC Gießen 11 1 3 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eintracht Stadtallendorf 12 35 11 +24 26
2 Unter-Flockenbach 12 34 23 +11 25
3 Darmstadt 98 II 12 27 17 +10 18
4 Eddersheim 11 26 18 +8 22
5 Friedberg 12 25 19 +6 21
6 Hünfelder SV 12 21 19 +2 19
7 Hadamar 11 20 18 +2 20
8 Fernwald 12 20 18 +2 16
9 Rot-Weiß Walldorf 12 19 26 -7 14
10 TuBa Pohlheim 11 18 19 -1 17
11 1960 Hanau 11 18 29 -11 7
12 Vfb Marburg 12 17 14 +3 20
13 Hummetroth 11 16 24 -8 9
14 Bayern Alzenau 12 14 18 -4 13
15 Baunatal 11 14 19 -5 12
16 FC Gießen 11 14 29 -15 6
17 Kassel 2 11 12 18 -6 8
18 Kassel 12 12 23 -11 14