Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Hessen / Kassel 2 vs Fernwald

Prediction Audit: Kassel 2 vs Fernwald Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Kassel 2
Aug 23, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Fernwald Fernwald

The model missed the final outcome (Fernwald win 1–2).

The model had projected Kassel 2 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kassel 2 Fernwald ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kassel 2; match finished Fernwald

Market lesson

The full-time result was Fernwald win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kassel 2 1.30 — Fernwald 1.30
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Fernwald win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4364347

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fernwald win · Kassel 2 1–2 Fernwald
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Hessen
  • Fixture: Kassel 2 vs Fernwald
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Kassel 2 1.3 — Fernwald 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Hessen Oberliga - Hessen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Unter-Flockenbach 13 9 1 3 28
2 Eintracht Stadtallendorf 12 8 2 2 26
3 Eddersheim 12 7 4 1 25
4 Hadamar 13 7 2 4 23
5 Friedberg 13 6 3 4 21
6 Vfb Marburg 13 6 2 5 20
7 TuBa Pohlheim 12 6 2 4 20
8 Hünfelder SV 13 6 1 6 19
9 Darmstadt 98 II 12 5 3 4 18
10 Fernwald 12 3 7 2 16
11 Bayern Alzenau 13 4 4 5 16
12 Baunatal 13 4 3 6 15
13 Rot-Weiß Walldorf 12 4 2 6 14
14 Kassel 12 4 2 6 14
15 Kassel 2 12 3 2 7 11
16 1960 Hanau 13 2 4 7 10
17 Hummetroth 13 2 3 8 9
18 FC Gießen 13 2 3 8 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eintracht Stadtallendorf 12 35 11 +24 26
2 Unter-Flockenbach 13 35 23 +12 28
3 Eddersheim 12 28 19 +9 25
4 Darmstadt 98 II 12 27 17 +10 18
5 Friedberg 13 25 21 +4 21
6 Hadamar 13 22 19 +3 23
7 Hünfelder SV 13 21 20 +1 19
8 Fernwald 12 20 18 +2 16
9 TuBa Pohlheim 12 20 20 0 20
10 1960 Hanau 13 20 32 -12 10
11 Rot-Weiß Walldorf 12 19 26 -7 14
12 Hummetroth 13 18 28 -10 9
13 Vfb Marburg 13 17 16 +1 20
14 Baunatal 13 17 22 -5 15
15 FC Gießen 13 17 32 -15 9
16 Bayern Alzenau 13 16 18 -2 16
17 Kassel 2 12 14 18 -4 11
18 Kassel 12 12 23 -11 14
Oberliga - Hessen Germany. Oberliga - Hessen Predictions