The model missed the final outcome (Lyon W win 7–1).
The model had projected Draw at 36.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Draw Lyon W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 7-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Lyon W win 7–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Lyon W 0.94 — Paris FC W 0.81
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lyon W win · 7–1
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lyon W win · Lyon W 7–1 Paris FC W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Feminine Division 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Le Havre W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Montpellier W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Nantes W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Lens W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 12 |
| 2 | Paris FC W | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Montpellier W | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Marseille W | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Strasbourg W | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Le Havre W | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Lens W | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 10 | Toulouse W | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 |
| 11 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Nantes W | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | +1.1 | 12 |
| 2 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Paris FC W | 4 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 5 | Marseille W | 4 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 6 | Le Havre W | 4 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Montpellier W | 4 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Strasbourg W | 4 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 10 | Nantes W | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 11 | Lens W | 4 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 4 | — | — | — | 1 |
