Predictions / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido

Prediction Audit: Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 74%
Afan Lido Afan Lido

The model missed the final outcome (Baglan Dragons win 2–1).

The model had projected Afan Lido at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Afan Lido Baglan Dragons ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Baglan Dragons higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Baglan Dragons -7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Baglan Dragons 32.4% 39.7% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.7% +2.9 pp Aligned
Afan Lido 38.0% 33.6% +4.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Baglan Dragons's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Baglan Dragons win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Baglan Dragons. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Afan Lido; match finished Baglan Dragons

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Afan Lido by 7.3 percentage points (45.3% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Baglan Dragons 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Afan Lido 38.0%
    • xG · Baglan Dragons 1.24 — Afan Lido 1.36
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Baglan Dragons 2.28 · Draw 3.39 · Afan Lido 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Baglan Dragons 39.7% · Draw 26.7% · Afan Lido 33.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Baglan Dragons 2.28 · Draw 3.39 · Afan Lido 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Baglan Dragons 39.7% · Draw 26.7% · Afan Lido 33.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Baglan Dragons win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5928472

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Baglan Dragons win · Baglan Dragons 2–1 Afan Lido
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Baglan Dragons 1.24 — Afan Lido 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 6 5 1 0 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 5 0 1 15
3 Treowen Stars 7 4 1 2 13
4 Pontypridd Town 6 4 1 1 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 11
7 Caerau (Ely) 7 3 1 3 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic 7 2 2 3 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 6
14 Pontardawe Town 6 1 0 5 3
15 llanelli AFC 8 0 2 6 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 6 22 5 +17 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 19 7 +12 15
3 Carmarthen Town 7 17 16 +1 11
4 Treowen Stars 7 16 10 +6 13
5 Pontypridd Town 6 16 11 +5 13
6 Caerau (Ely) 7 16 17 -1 10
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 14 13 +1 9
8 Afan Lido 8 13 15 -2 10
9 Newport City 5 9 5 +4 6
10 Baglan Dragons 8 8 8 0 13
11 Cardiff Draconians 5 7 8 -1 7
12 Caerphilly Athletic 7 7 12 -5 8
13 Ynyshir Albions 6 6 5 +1 9
14 llanelli AFC 8 6 23 -17 2
15 Pontardawe Town 6 5 13 -8 3
16 Llantwit Major 5 2 15 -13 1
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions