Predictions / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)

Prediction Audit: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons
Aug 28, 2026 - 18:30
3 1.07
1 1.53
xG Accuracy: 51%
Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely)

The model missed the final outcome (Baglan Dragons win 3–1).

The model had projected Caerau (Ely) at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Caerau (Ely) Baglan Dragons ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Caerau (Ely) higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Caerau (Ely) -12.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Baglan Dragons 25.0% 19.4% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.7% 21.9% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Caerau (Ely) 46.3% 58.7% -12.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Caerau (Ely)'s win probability at 58.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Baglan Dragons win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Caerau (Ely) than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Caerau (Ely); match finished Baglan Dragons

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Caerau (Ely) by 12.4 percentage points (58.7% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Baglan Dragons 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Caerau (Ely) 46.3%
    • xG · Baglan Dragons 1.07 — Caerau (Ely) 1.53
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Baglan Dragons 4.66 · Draw 4.14 · Caerau (Ely) 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Baglan Dragons 19.4% · Draw 21.9% · Caerau (Ely) 58.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Baglan Dragons 4.66 · Draw 4.14 · Caerau (Ely) 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Baglan Dragons 19.4% · Draw 21.9% · Caerau (Ely) 58.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Baglan Dragons win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 37/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4943628

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Baglan Dragons win · Baglan Dragons 3–1 Caerau (Ely)
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Baglan Dragons 1.07 — Caerau (Ely) 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 6 5 1 0 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 5 0 1 15
3 Treowen Stars 7 4 1 2 13
4 Pontypridd Town 6 4 1 1 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 11
7 Caerau (Ely) 7 3 1 3 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic 7 2 2 3 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 6
14 Pontardawe Town 6 1 0 5 3
15 llanelli AFC 8 0 2 6 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 6 22 5 +17 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 19 7 +12 15
3 Carmarthen Town 7 17 16 +1 11
4 Treowen Stars 7 16 10 +6 13
5 Pontypridd Town 6 16 11 +5 13
6 Caerau (Ely) 7 16 17 -1 10
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 14 13 +1 9
8 Afan Lido 8 13 15 -2 10
9 Newport City 5 9 5 +4 6
10 Baglan Dragons 8 8 8 0 13
11 Cardiff Draconians 5 7 8 -1 7
12 Caerphilly Athletic 7 7 12 -5 8
13 Ynyshir Albions 6 6 5 +1 9
14 llanelli AFC 8 6 23 -17 2
15 Pontardawe Town 6 5 13 -8 3
16 Llantwit Major 5 2 15 -13 1
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions