Predictions / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major

Prediction Audit: Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:30
5 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 34%
Llantwit Major Llantwit Major

AI correctly predicted the Aberystwyth Town win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Aberystwyth Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Aberystwyth Town -29.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aberystwyth Town 35.6% 65.5% -29.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.8% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Llantwit Major 34.7% 14.7% +20.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Aberystwyth Town's win probability at 65.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 29.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Aberystwyth Town win 5–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Aberystwyth Town higher (65.5% vs model 35.6%, 29.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Aberystwyth Town win 5–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aberystwyth Town 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Llantwit Major 34.7%
    • xG · Aberystwyth Town 1.31 — Llantwit Major 1.29
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aberystwyth Town 1.39 · Draw 4.53 · Llantwit Major 6.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Aberystwyth Town 65.1% · Draw 20.0% · Llantwit Major 14.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aberystwyth Town 1.40 · Draw 4.63 · Llantwit Major 6.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Aberystwyth Town 65.5% · Draw 19.8% · Llantwit Major 14.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aberystwyth Town win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4223778

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aberystwyth Town win · Aberystwyth Town 5–1 Llantwit Major
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Aberystwyth Town 1.31 — Llantwit Major 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 6 5 1 0 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 5 0 1 15
3 Treowen Stars 7 4 1 2 13
4 Pontypridd Town 6 4 1 1 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 11
7 Caerau (Ely) 7 3 1 3 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic 7 2 2 3 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 6
14 Pontardawe Town 6 1 0 5 3
15 llanelli AFC 8 0 2 6 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 6 22 5 +17 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 19 7 +12 15
3 Carmarthen Town 7 17 16 +1 11
4 Treowen Stars 7 16 10 +6 13
5 Pontypridd Town 6 16 11 +5 13
6 Caerau (Ely) 7 16 17 -1 10
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 14 13 +1 9
8 Afan Lido 8 13 15 -2 10
9 Newport City 5 9 5 +4 6
10 Baglan Dragons 8 8 8 0 13
11 Cardiff Draconians 5 7 8 -1 7
12 Caerphilly Athletic 7 7 12 -5 8
13 Ynyshir Albions 6 6 5 +1 9
14 llanelli AFC 8 6 23 -17 2
15 Pontardawe Town 6 5 13 -8 3
16 Llantwit Major 5 2 15 -13 1
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions