Prediction Audit: Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Llantwit Major

Aug 15, 2026 - 13:30

0 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 64%

Baglan Dragons

The model missed the final outcome (Baglan Dragons win 0–1).

The model had projected Llantwit Major at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Llantwit Major Baglan Dragons ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Llantwit Major	41.4%	46.9%	-5.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	26.2%	+3.2 pp	Aligned
Baglan Dragons	29.2%	26.9%	+2.4 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Llantwit Major's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Baglan Dragons win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Llantwit Major. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Llantwit Major; match finished Baglan Dragons

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Llantwit Major by 5.5 percentage points (46.9% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Llantwit Major 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Baglan Dragons 29.3%
- xG · Llantwit Major 1.43 — Baglan Dragons 1.17
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Llantwit Major 1.95 · Draw 3.49 · Baglan Dragons 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Llantwit Major 46.9% · Draw 26.2% · Baglan Dragons 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Llantwit Major 1.95 · Draw 3.49 · Baglan Dragons 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Llantwit Major 46.9% · Draw 26.2% · Baglan Dragons 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Baglan Dragons win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3349631

Closing Odds 1.95

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Baglan Dragons win · Llantwit Major 0–1 Baglan Dragons

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FAW Championship
Fixture: Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Llantwit Major 1.43 — Baglan Dragons 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	5	1	0	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	5	0	1	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	13
4	Pontypridd Town	6	4	1	1	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	13
6	Carmarthen Town	7	3	2	2	11
7	Caerau (Ely)	7	3	1	3	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	2	3	2	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7
13	Newport City	5	2	0	3	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	3
15	llanelli AFC	8	0	2	6	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	22	5	+17	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	19	7	+12	15
3	Carmarthen Town	7	17	16	+1	11
4	Treowen Stars	7	16	10	+6	13
5	Pontypridd Town	6	16	11	+5	13
6	Caerau (Ely)	7	16	17	-1	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	14	13	+1	9
8	Afan Lido	8	13	15	-2	10
9	Newport City	5	9	5	+4	6
10	Baglan Dragons	8	8	8	0	13
11	Cardiff Draconians	5	7	8	-1	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	7	7	12	-5	8
13	Ynyshir Albions	6	6	5	+1	9
14	llanelli AFC	8	6	23	-17	2
15	Pontardawe Town	6	5	13	-8	3
16	Llantwit Major	5	2	15	-13	1