Prediction Audit: Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Carmarthen Town

Aug 14, 2026 - 18:30

3 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 62%

Afan Lido

AI correctly predicted the Carmarthen Town win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Carmarthen Town	41.4%	54.1%	-12.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	22.6%	+6.7 pp	Model Higher
Afan Lido	29.2%	23.3%	+6.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Carmarthen Town's win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Carmarthen Town win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Carmarthen Town than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Carmarthen Town higher (54.1% vs model 41.4%, 12.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Carmarthen Town win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Carmarthen Town 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Afan Lido 29.3%
- xG · Carmarthen Town 1.43 — Afan Lido 1.17
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Carmarthen Town 1.67 · Draw 3.99 · Afan Lido 3.88
- Implied 1X2 · Carmarthen Town 54.1% · Draw 22.6% · Afan Lido 23.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Carmarthen Town 1.67 · Draw 3.99 · Afan Lido 3.88
- Implied 1X2 · Carmarthen Town 54.1% · Draw 22.6% · Afan Lido 23.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Carmarthen Town win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3235781

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Carmarthen Town win · Carmarthen Town 3–1 Afan Lido

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FAW Championship
Fixture: Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Carmarthen Town 1.43 — Afan Lido 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	5	1	0	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	5	0	1	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	13
4	Pontypridd Town	6	4	1	1	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	13
6	Carmarthen Town	7	3	2	2	11
7	Caerau (Ely)	7	3	1	3	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	2	3	2	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7
13	Newport City	5	2	0	3	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	3
15	llanelli AFC	8	0	2	6	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	22	5	+17	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	19	7	+12	15
3	Carmarthen Town	7	17	16	+1	11
4	Treowen Stars	7	16	10	+6	13
5	Pontypridd Town	6	16	11	+5	13
6	Caerau (Ely)	7	16	17	-1	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	14	13	+1	9
8	Afan Lido	8	13	15	-2	10
9	Newport City	5	9	5	+4	6
10	Baglan Dragons	8	8	8	0	13
11	Cardiff Draconians	5	7	8	-1	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	7	7	12	-5	8
13	Ynyshir Albions	6	6	5	+1	9
14	llanelli AFC	8	6	23	-17	2
15	Pontardawe Town	6	5	13	-8	3
16	Llantwit Major	5	2	15	-13	1