The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Rhyl at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Rhyl Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangor 1876 | 31.0% | 55.2% | -24.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 22.4% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Rhyl | 39.5% | 22.4% | +17.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Bangor 1876's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 24.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Rhyl; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rhyl by 24.2 percentage points (63.7% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bangor 1876 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Rhyl 39.5%
- xG · Bangor 1876 1.21 — Rhyl 1.39
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bangor 1876 1.62 · Draw 4.00 · Rhyl 4.00
- Implied 1X2 · Bangor 1876 55.2% · Draw 22.4% · Rhyl 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bangor 1876 1.62 · Draw 4.00 · Rhyl 4.00
- Implied 1X2 · Bangor 1876 55.2% · Draw 22.4% · Rhyl 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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FAW Championship — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 6 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 7 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 11 |
| 4 | Treowen Stars | 7 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Pontypridd Town | 6 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 8 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Newport City | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | llanelli AFC | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
| 15 | Pontardawe Town | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
