Prediction Audit: Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Denbigh Town

Aug 21, 2026 - 18:45

2 1.30

3 1.30

xG Accuracy: 52%

Porthmadog

The model missed the final outcome (Porthmadog win 2–3).

The model had projected Denbigh Town at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Denbigh Town Porthmadog ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Denbigh Town	35.2%	51.7%	-16.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.0%	+6.6 pp	Model Higher
Porthmadog	35.2%	25.3%	+9.8 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Denbigh Town's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 16.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Porthmadog win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Denbigh Town than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
1X2: model leaned Denbigh Town; match finished Porthmadog

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Denbigh Town by 16.5 percentage points (51.7% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Denbigh Town 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Porthmadog 35.2%
- xG · Denbigh Town 1.30 — Porthmadog 1.30
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Denbigh Town 1.75 · Draw 3.93 · Porthmadog 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Denbigh Town 51.7% · Draw 23.0% · Porthmadog 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Denbigh Town 1.75 · Draw 3.93 · Porthmadog 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Denbigh Town 51.7% · Draw 23.0% · Porthmadog 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Porthmadog win · 2–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4039392

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Porthmadog win · Denbigh Town 2–3 Porthmadog

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: FAW Championship
Fixture: Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Denbigh Town 1.3 — Porthmadog 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	5	1	0	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	5	0	1	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	13
4	Pontypridd Town	6	4	1	1	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	13
6	Carmarthen Town	7	3	2	2	11
7	Caerau (Ely)	7	3	1	3	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	2	3	2	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7
13	Newport City	5	2	0	3	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	3
15	llanelli AFC	8	0	2	6	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	22	5	+17	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	19	7	+12	15
3	Carmarthen Town	7	17	16	+1	11
4	Treowen Stars	7	16	10	+6	13
5	Pontypridd Town	6	16	11	+5	13
6	Caerau (Ely)	7	16	17	-1	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	14	13	+1	9
8	Afan Lido	8	13	15	-2	10
9	Newport City	5	9	5	+4	6
10	Baglan Dragons	8	8	8	0	13
11	Cardiff Draconians	5	7	8	-1	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	7	7	12	-5	8
13	Ynyshir Albions	6	6	5	+1	9
14	llanelli AFC	8	6	23	-17	2
15	Pontardawe Town	6	5	13	-8	3
16	Llantwit Major	5	2	15	-13	1