Predictions / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra

Prediction Audit: Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guilsfield Guilsfield
Aug 08, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 52%
Mold Alexandra Mold Alexandra

AI correctly predicted the Guilsfield win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guilsfield Guilsfield ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Guilsfield win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Guilsfield 1.36 — Mold Alexandra 1.24
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Guilsfield win · 3–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2816565

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guilsfield win · Guilsfield 3–2 Mold Alexandra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Guilsfield 1.36 — Mold Alexandra 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 9 6 3 0 21
2 Pontypridd Town 10 6 2 2 20
3 Aberystwyth Town 9 6 1 2 19
4 Caerau (Ely) 10 6 1 3 19
5 Baglan Dragons 11 5 2 4 17
6 Ynyshir Albions 9 4 4 1 16
7 Carmarthen Town 10 4 3 3 15
8 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 3 4 3 13
9 Treowen Stars 10 4 1 5 13
10 Afan Lido 11 3 3 5 12
11 Caerphilly Athletic 10 3 2 5 11
12 Pontardawe Town 9 3 1 5 10
13 Cardiff Draconians 8 2 3 3 9
14 Newport City 8 2 2 4 8
15 Llantwit Major 9 2 2 5 8
16 llanelli AFC 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 9 30 11 +19 21
2 Pontypridd Town 10 24 17 +7 20
3 Aberystwyth Town 9 22 9 +13 19
4 Caerau (Ely) 10 22 18 +4 19
5 Carmarthen Town 10 22 21 +1 15
6 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 20 18 +2 13
7 Treowen Stars 10 19 21 -2 13
8 Afan Lido 11 18 22 -4 12
9 Ynyshir Albions 9 15 9 +6 16
10 Pontardawe Town 9 15 17 -2 10
11 Newport City 8 12 9 +3 8
12 Baglan Dragons 11 12 12 0 17
13 Caerphilly Athletic 10 12 19 -7 11
14 Cardiff Draconians 8 11 14 -3 9
15 llanelli AFC 11 9 33 -24 2
16 Llantwit Major 9 8 21 -13 8