Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / Almere City II vs Barendrecht

Prediction Audit: Almere City II vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Almere City II Almere City II
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.34
4 1.26
xG Accuracy: 43%
Barendrecht Barendrecht

The model missed the final outcome (Barendrecht win 1–4).

The model had projected Almere City II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Almere City II Barendrecht ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Almere City II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Almere City II -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Almere City II 37.1% 46.9% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.8% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Barendrecht 33.3% 30.3% +3.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Almere City II's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Barendrecht win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Almere City II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Almere City II by 9.9 percentage points (47.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Almere City II 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Barendrecht 33.4%
    • xG · Almere City II 1.34 — Barendrecht 1.26
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Almere City II 1.93 · Draw 3.98 · Barendrecht 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Almere City II 46.9% · Draw 22.8% · Barendrecht 30.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Almere City II 1.93 · Draw 3.98 · Barendrecht 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Almere City II 46.9% · Draw 22.8% · Barendrecht 30.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Barendrecht win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10089562

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barendrecht win · Almere City II 1–4 Barendrecht
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: Almere City II vs Barendrecht
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Almere City II 1.34 — Barendrecht 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.5% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +44.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 6 5 0 1 15
2 Kozakken Boys 6 4 1 1 13
3 De Treffers 6 3 3 0 12
4 HHC 6 3 2 1 11
5 Ijsselmeervogels 5 3 1 1 10
6 Spakenburg 6 3 1 2 10
7 AFC Amsterdam 6 3 1 2 10
8 Sparta Rotterdam II 6 2 3 1 9
9 RKAV Volendam 6 2 3 1 9
10 Katwijk 6 2 2 2 8
11 Barendrecht 6 2 2 2 8
12 Rijnsburgse Boys 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hoek 6 1 3 2 6
14 Koninklijke HFC 6 1 2 3 5
15 Kloetinge 6 1 2 3 5
16 Almere City II 6 1 1 4 4
17 GVVV Veenendaal 5 1 0 4 3
18 ROHDA Raalte 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sparta Rotterdam II 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Quick Boys 6 17 4 +13 15
3 Kozakken Boys 6 17 10 +7 13
4 De Treffers 6 14 6 +8 12
5 HHC 6 13 9 +4 11
6 AFC Amsterdam 6 11 11 0 10
7 Rijnsburgse Boys 6 11 18 -7 7
8 Almere City II 6 10 12 -2 4
9 Spakenburg 6 9 6 +3 10
10 Katwijk 6 9 8 +1 8
11 Barendrecht 6 8 9 -1 8
12 Hoek 6 8 9 -1 6
13 Koninklijke HFC 6 8 12 -4 5
14 GVVV Veenendaal 5 8 14 -6 3
15 RKAV Volendam 6 7 10 -3 9
16 Kloetinge 6 7 14 -7 5
17 Ijsselmeervogels 5 6 3 +3 10
18 ROHDA Raalte 6 3 17 -14 0
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions