The model missed the final outcome (Barendrecht win 1–3).
The model had projected Spakenburg at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Spakenburg Barendrecht ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spakenburg | 38.0% | 63.6% | -25.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 17.6% | +12.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Barendrecht | 32.4% | 18.8% | +13.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Spakenburg's win probability at 63.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 25.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Barendrecht win 1–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Spakenburg; match finished Barendrecht
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Spakenburg by 25.6 percentage points (63.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spakenburg 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Barendrecht 32.4%
- xG · Spakenburg 1.36 — Barendrecht 1.24
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spakenburg 1.42 · Draw 5.13 · Barendrecht 4.80
- Implied 1X2 · Spakenburg 63.6% · Draw 17.6% · Barendrecht 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Spakenburg 1.42 · Draw 5.13 · Barendrecht 4.80
- Implied 1X2 · Spakenburg 63.6% · Draw 17.6% · Barendrecht 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Barendrecht win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tweede Divisie — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Kozakken Boys | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | HHC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Ijsselmeervogels | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Spakenburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | AFC Amsterdam | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | RKAV Volendam | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Barendrecht | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hoek | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Koninklijke HFC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Kloetinge | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Almere City II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | GVVV Veenendaal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 6 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 6 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | Kozakken Boys | 6 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | De Treffers | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | HHC | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | AFC Amsterdam | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Almere City II | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Barendrecht | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Hoek | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Koninklijke HFC | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | GVVV Veenendaal | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | RKAV Volendam | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Kloetinge | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ijsselmeervogels | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 0 |
