The model missed the final outcome (Spakenburg win 0–2).
The model had projected Hoek at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hoek Spakenburg ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoek | 39.9% | 42.5% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.7% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Spakenburg | 30.6% | 33.8% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Spakenburg win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Hoek; match finished Spakenburg
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hoek by 5.8 percentage points (34.1% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hoek 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Spakenburg 30.6%
- xG · Hoek 1.40 — Spakenburg 1.20
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hoek 2.13 · Draw 3.83 · Spakenburg 2.68
- Implied 1X2 · Hoek 42.5% · Draw 23.7% · Spakenburg 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hoek 2.13 · Draw 3.83 · Spakenburg 2.68
- Implied 1X2 · Hoek 42.5% · Draw 23.7% · Spakenburg 33.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Spakenburg win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tweede Divisie — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | HHC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Spakenburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | AFC Amsterdam | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Katwijk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kozakken Boys | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Hoek | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ijsselmeervogels | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kloetinge | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | RKAV Volendam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Almere City II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Koninklijke HFC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Barendrecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | GVVV Veenendaal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 3 | 10 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 3 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | HHC | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Kozakken Boys | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Almere City II | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | AFC Amsterdam | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Kloetinge | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | GVVV Veenendaal | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Spakenburg | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Hoek | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Koninklijke HFC | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 |
| 14 | Katwijk | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 15 | Ijsselmeervogels | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Barendrecht | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | RKAV Volendam | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
